This year was shaping up to be Sunnova Energy International Inc.âs best ever.
Californiaâalready the biggest U.S. solar marketâhad started requiring most new homes to be powered by the sun. The rooftop solar companyâs shares hit a new peak in early March, and analysts projected sharp growth. Even bad news hadnât harmed Sunnova. Rolling blackouts, which big utilities had used the previous fall to help prevent wildfires? Just another reason homeowners might want Sunnovaâs solar and battery products. A trade war hadnât stopped the rise of residential solar. Even the novel coronavirus in China didnât look like much of a problem. In late February the company increased its estimate for the number of new customers it would bring in for the year.
But Sunnova Chief Executive Officer John Berger arrived in Snowmass, Colo., on March 12 for a ski vacation with his family already sensing that things were changing. Some runs were beginning to close, and his stock was dropping off sharply from its high. âI was thinking that my wife and kids would go skiing the next day, and I would be in the hotel room on the phone,â Berger says.
If only it had been that easy. Berger cut the trip short, returned to company headquarters in Houston, and ordered most employees to stay home. The next few weeks were a blur. Door-to-door salesâa key marketing strategy for the residential sectorâhad to be mostly sidelined. Daily sales had never been more volatile. Berger suspended salaries for the entire management team, let go of outside consultants, and put off some expansion plans.
âYou focus on the short term because the short term is so acute,â he says. âIf you canât handle the short term, youâre not around for the long term.â
No solar executive was supposed to be talking like this, not this year. After a decade of bruising battles with utilities keen to preserve their generations-long monopolies and fallout from high-profile failures, 2020 was supposed to be the industryâs coming-out party. To Joe Osha, an equity analyst at JMP Securities LLC who, coming into this year, forecast as much as 20% growth in American residential installations, the reasons for optimism were simple: the mood in California, mounting investor enthusiasm, and the potential extension of a key federal tax credit.
There was another dimension as well. Whereas most things involving electrical grids are decided by utilities, operators, and governments, rooftop solar is participatory; itâs a personal choice. If climate-sensitive homeowners want to do something to directly help with decarbonizationâand show it offâone option is rooftop panels. With all that still in mind, Osha remains optimistic. âThereâs no particular reason not to have the same level of positivity once we get through this downturn and the disruptions associated with it,â he says, though he now thinks the residential market will be unchanged at best this year.
Palmetto, a solar and clean energy company based in Charleston, S.C., has seen strong growth during the pandemic, says CEO Chris Kemper. Its customer base surged 40% from January to April.
One thing thatâs helped: Palmetto shifted to a gig economy model well before the crisis, Kemper says. Early on the companyâs âmembers,â as theyâre known, primarily had sales experience within the solar industry. In March, Palmetto began marketing itself to new recruits. With more and more people out of work, membership has almost doubled from January and now counts schoolteachers, Uber and Lyft drivers, and real estate brokers in its number.
Although equity analysts at Cowen & Co. tracked a 30% to 40% drop in U.S. residential installations in the second quarter, thereâs a sense in the market that a rebound may not be too far away. Sunrun Inc. in San Francisco, Americaâs biggest rooftop company, has begun bringing back furloughed panel installers. BloombergNEF now forecasts 2.6 gigawatts will be deployed in the country in 2020, which, though below last yearâs high of 2.8GW, would still be the sectorâs third-best annual performance. BNEF has seen demand weaken because of the virus, but the California mandate has helped cushion the blow. It expects installations to reach a new high of 3.2GW next year and 5.8GW in 2022, with government incentives and cost reductions driving the expected surge.
Around the world there are pushes to expand rooftop solar amid the pandemic. South Korea bumped up its subsidy for residential and commercial solar, which BNEF says will likely prompt record-high installations this year. Switzerland, which had a strong first quarter compared with last year but anticipated outbreak-prompted setbacks, will allocate 46 million Swiss francs ($47 million) to support development. Italyâs stimulus package, passed in May, increases the income tax rebate for photovoltaic systems smaller than 20 kilowatts from July 1 of this year through the end of 2021, says Jenny Chase, a solar analyst at BNEF. âThese are probably not the last countries to use residential solar to keep people working,â she says.
Philip Shen, a Roth Capital Partners analyst, said in a note Tuesday that the volume of residential solar installations âaccelerated substantiallyâ during May and that the third quarter could be robust.
As for Sunnova, sales volumes increased throughout April and into May from the March nadir. Capital markets have improved, solar loans broadly appear to be performing well, and customers are meeting payment obligations. While the rooftop solar company laid off about 20 people in the early days of the crisis, Berger says he now employs more people than before the pandemic began. Sunnovaâs stock is up 47% for the year.
In a tweet on May 13, California Governor Gavin Newsom noted that wildfires in the state had increased 60% this year from 2019. âItâs a tired clichĂ©, but you have to walk and chew gum at the same time,â Newsom said during a visit to a fire station the same day. âWeâre focused on coronavirus mitigation and trying to do our best to suppress the spread. At the same time, weâve got to mitigate and suppress these fires as we move into wildfire season.â
The residential solar industry may actually benefit from this sudden stress test. Many of those door-to-door salespeople are figuring out how to do their job online. Sunrun CEO Lynn Jurich says the pandemic has been a catalyst for other changesâthings that might have taken a couple of years got done in a few weeks. And more counties across the country are now allowing inspections to happen virtually. Both will help rooftop installers cut their biggest expense: marketing costs.
It all bodes reasonably well, Berger says: âWeâre getting back to the trend lineâweâre still showing growth year-over-year. I think weâll get back to that.â
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